You are betting on a tournament, teams X and Y play until first to four wins. You want to place a bet on the 6th round. What is the probability of team X winning the tournament in the 6th round?
My thinking for this question is that for X to win in the 6th round they'd have to win three and lose 2 and win round 6 as well as the half chance they win each round. Right now I believe the answer would be 5C3 x 1/2^6 for a final answer of 5/32. Is this approach correct? I was also considering a bayes theorem approach where the chance of the 6th win is a combination of smaller probailities For example P(X)+ P(Y)+P(XX) + P(XY)+ P(YX)... but it did not seem like the correct approach.