Find the density function, pdf, of $Y$, the arrival time of the $k$th event of a poisson process.

1k Views Asked by At

I am having difficulty in approaching the following problem:

Suppose $X \sim \text{Poisson}(\lambda)$ and let $k$ exist $N$ be fixed. Also, let $Y$ be the (random) arrival time of the $k$th Poisson event (from the distribution of $X$). Find the density function of $Y$.

Is it asking me to incorporate the Poisson PDF and show the derivation for some random arrival time of $Y$ in a $k$th poisson event?

I know what the Poisson PDF is, but not sure how I would apply this.

1

There are 1 best solutions below

0
On BEST ANSWER

As stated in the problem we let $Y_k$ be the time of the $k$-th event of the poisson process $X(t)$ with rate $\lambda$.

$Y_k = Z_1 + Z_2 + \cdots + Z_k$

where $Z_k,\: k=1,2...$ are the interarrival times.

It is a straight forward exercise to show that $Z_k$ are iid exponential random variables with parameter $\lambda$. Note that an exponential random variable with parameter $\lambda$ is a gamma random variable with parameters $(1,\lambda)$.

It is another straight forward excercise to show, by induction, that the sum $Y_k$ is a gamma random variable with parameter $(k, \lambda)$.

Hence $Y_k$ has a pdf given by

$$ f_{Y_k}(t) = \begin{cases} \lambda e^{-\lambda t} \frac{(\lambda t)^{k-1}}{(k-1)!}, & t > 0 \\ 0, & t < 0 \end{cases} $$


You can show that the $Z_k's$ are iid exponentials like this:

$$P(Z_1 > t) = P\{X(t) = 0\} = e^{-\lambda t}$$

$$F_{Z_1}(t) = P(Z_1 \leq t) = 1-e^{-\lambda t}$$

Hence, $Z_1$ is an exponential r.v.

Let $f_1(t)$ be the pdf of $Z_1$.

Then we have that

$$ \begin{align} P(Z_2 > t) & = \int P(Z_2 > t | Z_1 = \tau)f_1(\tau) d \tau \\ & \\ & = \int P[X(t + \tau) - X(\tau)=0]f_1(\tau) d \tau \\ & \\ & = e^{-\lambda t}\int f_1(\tau) d \tau \\ & \\ & = e^{-\lambda t} \end{align} $$

which indicates that $Z_2$ is also an exponential r.v. with parameter $\lambda$ and is independent of $Z_1$. Repeating the same argument, you can conclude that $Z_1, Z_2, ....$ are iid exponential r.v.'s with parameter $\lambda$.