It is known that the probability that two twins are the same sex $p=0.64$ where in general the probability of the births of a boy is $q= 0.51$. Find the probability that the second of the twins is a boy under the condition that the first of them is a boy.
I can't solve this problem. And I searched it typical problems on Google. But I can't solve this. Any help, any suggestions. Thanks for all!
There are for combinations boy|boy, boy|girl, girl|boy and girl|girl which we define as $f_{00},f_{01},f_{10},f_{11}$.
We are given that "probability that two twins are the same sex $p=0.64$" which is $f_{00}+f_{11}=0.64$.
We are given that "general the probability of the births of a boy is q=0.51" which is "$f_{00}+f_{01}=0.51$ and $f_{00}+f_{10}=0.51$.
Given that the total probability is $f_{00}+f_{01}+f_{10}+f_{11}=1$.
We invoke our knowledge of algebra, so after removing $f_{00}+f_{11}=0.64$ we have $f_{01}+f_{10}=0.36$ adding $f_{00}+f_{01}=0.51$ we get $2f_{01}+f_{00}+f_{10}=0.87$ and given that $f_{00}+f_{10}=0.51$ we get $f_{01}=0.18$ and $f_{00}=0.51-0.18=0.33$.