Say you are in a game where every win doubles your money and every lose halves. You can walk away any time with the money you have by giving up?
The rules of game is every step a problem is posed and four choices $1$ to $4$ are given and one of them is correct.
Say you have $\$16$ in winnings and you have eliminated $3,4$ leaving with you either to decide on $1$ or $2$ or walk away and 'you think' there is at least $67\%$ possibility of $1$.
Is there a Bayesian decision formula to make 'correct' decisions?