I am a uni student and currently majoring in Finance.
As far as I am concerned and If I recall my 'STAT 101' module correctly, independent events are not affected by previous events.
My question is that - the dataset you get from independent events is useless?
Let's assume that you are a hedge fund manager and you deal with binary stock options and the probability of it is the same as a coin toss. 50:50
However, purely based on the stock chart within a certain time frame (ignoring all other factors such as fundamentals, breaking news and etc), you see a certain pattern. Let's say the winning rate is 70%.
If you try to come up with a strategy with regards to that chart, are you a good fund manager or a bad one?
Thanks in advance.