Is it reasonable to use the order of magnitude between two calculated probabilities to give a ballpark figure for the odds of an occurrence happening?
For example: I have a model for a tournament with two classes of player. I have calculated the probability of a player from each class scoring the maximum number of points possible.
Probability of an H type player achieving the highest score possible is: 1/ 83,521
Probability of a L type player achieving the highest score possible: 1/ 3.906E+17
In this model we will assume the calculated probabilities are valid, and that that there is always one type H player that has won the highest score possible and is ranked number 1 on the leader-board for the tournament.
There is also a rule that says if a type L player ties for first place with an H player then the tie goes to the L player. The number one leader-board rank will always be an H player unless an L player can achieve the maximum points possible to kick the H player out of first place through the tie breaker rule. No other player combinations are being considered.
The difference in the orders of magnitude for the two highest score probabilities as noted above is 13 (!? super layperson here)
For this model could one ballpark a figure and say that the odds of first place on the leader-board not being a type H player is approximately 1 in 10 trillion?
Thank you very much.