I am interested in modeling questions and specific outcomes so that i can evaluate conditional probabilities and mathematical expectation. I am looking for a way to diagram or otherwise describe the scenarios.
note: i'm a bit of a newb and would appreciate any help in the manner of formal terms, topics and/or software I could use to further research my goals. Likewise, if this is the wrong place to post, a polite redirect is appreciated.
I'm certain this falls under 'logic' and there are some additional formal terms or subjects that I can find books to research further. I'm looking for help learning how to learn about the subject.
Thanks in advance
Here are a couple of samples. Please don't get hung up on the specific questions. Most of them call out specific conditions which implies that there are other outcomes that are excluded for the sake of the evaluation. I want to model them and put probabilities to the whole model so I can properly evaluate.
Question #1
Will the European Central Bank (ECB) *officially announce a plan to charge a *negative interest rate on funds parked overnight at the ECB before 31 March 2014?
scenario A
Yes - if the Federal Reserve officially announces tapering the pace of bond purchases below $65BN per month beforehand
Scenario B
Yes - if the Federal Reserve does not officially announce tapering below $65BN per month beforehand.
Question #2
How many *additional countries will announce *restrictions on financial institutions and/or businesses converting Bitcoin to conventional currencies between 19 February 2014 and 30 April 2014?
Scenario A - None
Scenario B - [1:5]
Scenario C - [6:15]
Scenario D - <15