Suppose each quarter, we calculate the change (or factor) from the previous quarter. After a period of time, you will have a list that shows the change from quarter to quarter for however many years. Now, let's say you need to make a prediction: What will next quarters change be in relation to this quarter? Currently, we have three main methods: (1) 4-quarter average, (2) 8-quarter average, (3) all-quarter average.
What would be another, more accurate, approach for determining a development factor?