On jackpots in the Malaysian lottery

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Below is the Jackpot in my home country. Based on my calculation, the probability of Jackpot 2 is higher than Jackpot 1 although Jackpot 1 has higher prize, which does not make sense to me.

Is my calculation wrong?

Updated: Based on the comment and answers, it seems that the ticket bought is important on the probability calculation.

6 numbers needed to pick per ticket and no need to indicate which is the bonus number in ticket.

Ticket bought example: 3, 9, 13, 23, 33, 43 (no need to specify bonus number)
Draw result: 3, 9, 13, 33, 40, 43 + 23 (bonus number)
Then you win jackpot 2

Jackpot 1:
Winning criteria: 6 matching number out of 50 numbers
6 matching number: 50 choose 6 = 15890700
Probability: 1 in 15,890,700

Jackpot 2:
Winning criteria: 5 matching number out of 50 numbers + 1 bonus number from the 50 numbers
5 matching number: 50 choose 5 = 2,118,760
1 bonus number: 50 - 6 = 44 numbers remaining

5 matching number + 1 bonus number = 2,118,760 x 44 = 93,225,440

Probability: 1 in 93,225,440

Jackpot image

2

There are 2 best solutions below

4
On BEST ANSWER

Your probability for Jackpot 1 is correct: $\frac{1}{50 \choose 6}=\frac{1}{15890700}$.

Your probability for Jackpot 2 is wrong.

There are ${50 \choose 7} = 99884400$ ways of choosing the six main balls and the bonus ball if you ignore their status ($7$ times more if you take account of the status). Of these, $50-6=44$ will have the six numbers on the ticket, so the probability of winning either Jackpot 1 or Jackpot 2 is $\frac{44}{{50 \choose 7}}$ which is seven times the probability of winning Jackpot 1.

By subtraction, this make the probability of winning Jackpot 2 be six times the probability of winning Jackpot 1, i.e. $\frac{6}{50 \choose 6} = \frac1{2648450}$.

Approached a different way, the probability that the first six balls drawn have five of the numbers on the ticket and that the seventh ball matches the missing number is $\frac{{6 \choose 5}{50-6 \choose 1}}{50 \choose 6} \times \frac1{50-6 \choose 1}=\frac{6}{50 \choose 6}$ again.

8
On

It appears you have to choose $7$ numbers

There are $6$ main winning numbers, $1$ bonus number and $43$ useless numbers,

Thus P(win jackpot 2) $ =\Large{\binom65\binom11\binom{43}1\over\binom{50}7} = {43\over 16\;647\;400}$


OP finally says that only $6$ numbers are drawn

Then P(win jackpot 2)
$=\Large\frac{\binom65\binom11}{\binom{50}6}= \frac1{2,648,450}$