$P[X_{t_{n}} \in A_{n} \mid X_{t_{n-1}} \in A_{n-1},...,X_{t_{0}} \in A_{0}]=P[X_{t_{n}} \in A_{n} \mid X_{t_{n-1}} \in A_{n-1}]$

49 Views Asked by At

Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{F},P, \mathbb{F}=(\mathcal{F}_{t})_{t \geq 0})$ be a filtered probability space and $(X_{t})_{t \geq 0}$ be a Markov process taking values in a polish space $(E,\mathcal{E})$, i.e $X$ is $\mathbb{F}$-adapted and $P[X_{t} \in A \mid \mathcal{F}_{s}]=P[X_{t} \in A \mid X_{s}]$ holds for $0 \leq s \leq t$ and $A \in \mathcal{E}$.

How can one prove that $$ P[X_{t_{n}} \in A_{n} \mid X_{t_{n-1}} \in A_{n-1},...,X_{t_{0}} \in A_{0}]=P[X_{t_{n}} \in A_{n} \mid X_{t_{n-1}} \in A_{n-1}] $$ holds for $0 \leq t_{0}< ... < t_{n}$ and $A_{0},...,A_{n} \in \mathcal{E}$ s.t. $P[X_{t_{n-1}} \in A_{n-1},...,X_{t_{0}} \in A_{0}] > 0$?

1

There are 1 best solutions below

1
On BEST ANSWER

This sort of equality isn't true in general. Here's an example in discrete time, but it won't be hard to emulate it in continuous time with Brownian motion.

Example: $X$ is a discrete time symmetric random walk on the integers, with $P[X_0=0]=P[X_0=1]=1/2$. Let $A=\{1,2\}$. Then $$ P[X_2=3\mid X_0=0, X_1\in A]=0, $$ but $$ P[X_2=3\mid X_1\in A]={P[X_2=3,X_1=2]\over P[X_1\in A]}= {P[X_0=1,X_1=2,X_2=3]\over P[X_1\in A]}>0. $$