I've got a question about a game taken from a book called Rachunek prawdopodobieństwa dla (prawie) każdego by Jacek Jakubowski and Rafał Sztencel.
Adam and Bolek have a machine that generates a pair of random natural numbers that are next to each other (like $1$ and $2$ or $55$ and $54$) and each boy gets a different number from the pair. They know the number of their opponent but they don't know their own numbers.
Here are the rules:
- The winner is the one with greatest number.
- The loser must give the winner as many coins as great is the loser's number (so if the loser has number $40$, he has to give 40 coins to the winner).
- If a player doesn't like his number he can decide to get a new pair of random numbers.
Both players will never want to generate a new pair, because they think like this: There is a $50\%$ chance that I am the winner. And if the number of my opponent is $k$ then I'll win $k$ coins or lose $k-1$ coins. So my overall score would be $\frac{k - (k-1)}{2} = 0.5$ of a coin.
This strategy is of course based on wrong assumptions - the set of numbers that can be generated by the machine cannot be infinite. Additionally, it can't be that both players are winners of the game.
My questions are:
- What would be their strategy if they knew that the set is finite?
Is their strategy truly wrong even if the set is infinite? If their strategy turns out to be a winning one, how could it be that both of them are going to be the winners of the game?
Apparently, this is not true because:"One can define a uniform distribution on some infinite sets (uniform on $[0,1][0,1]$ is totally legit). But one cannot define a uniform distribution on an infinite yet countable set, such as the natural numbers."
~ Clement C.
In the original question, the lack of a uniform distribution on the naturals saves you. The probability of all the numbers has to sum to $1$, so the probability has to decrease with $n$ eventually.
If you limit the number to the range $[1,N]$, a player who sees $N$ will certainly want to change numbers as he knows he is losing. If either player can force a change, a player who sees $N-1$ should request a change, because either his opponent sees $N$ and will also request a change or his opponent sees $N-2$ and is winning. Then a player who sees $N-2 \dots$