Question: “Get slapped once every three times you visit her” is a famous quote about Angry Granny. Andrew is one of her servants and visits her 15 times every day. What is the probability that Andrew would be slapped 13 times in a week if we believe that the quote mentioned above is correct? How would your answer change if the probability of the quotes being true is 0.9?
Now I know the first part of this question can be solved using Binomial distribution, out of total n=15*7 times he visit the Granny, we have to find probability of r=13 where p=1/3.
But I cannot figure out how do we find the changed probability if the quote is true with probability only 0.9. I know it is conditional probability but what is the exact expression we are trying to find out here?