This is probably a simple one, but I'm trying to figure out how to calculate the probability of victory for player 1 in a static two-player game, where the history of games between the two is (player 1: 6 victories, player 2: 4 victories).
I'm not much good at Maths, so my initial efforts have just been to divide the number of games won by the total number of games played. So, 6/10 = 60%.
What I'd like to avoid is the situation where, after game 1, there is a probability distribution of 100 : 0.