There exist Two bags, one has one white ball, other has one black ball. You randomly select a bag and add a white ball in it. You then shake the bag. From the same bag, if you picked a ball and it was white, what is the chance that the other ball in that bag is also white?
I had the following idea: we have 2 cases
- Balck Ball + White Ball or
- White ball + White ball
probability of choosing either of the bag = 0.5
probability of picking a white ball = probability of picking from first case or from second = (0.5)(0.5) + (0.5)(1) = 0.75
probability of second ball being white = probability of second white ball in first case or second case = (0.5)(0) + (0.5)(1) = 0.5
so probability that other ball is also white = is 1/2.
Is this approach right?
$C1:$ You picked The Bag with White ball
Now $P(W)=1$ as there are all white balls in the bag.
$C2:$ You picked The Bag with Black ball
Now $P(W)=0.5$ as there is $1$ Black and $1$ White Ball in the bag.
Hence, $P(C1|W)=\frac{P(C1)P(W|C1)}{P(C1)P(W|C1)+P(C2)P(W|C2)}\Rightarrow P(C1|W)=\frac{(0.5)(1)}{(0.5)(1)+(0.5)(0.5)}=\frac{2}{3}$