Apologies for the rather vague phrasing of the title; I'm trying to formulate this problem as exactly as I can and perhaps not succeeding very well.
The problem is inspired by a real-world situation: For a medical condition, my doctor has prescribed me $75$ pills, to be taken over $30$ days, $2.5$ pills once per day. The pharmacy has dispensed me $75$ whole pills. My doctor has assured me that, rather than asking the pharmacy to dispense smaller pills, I can simply split a whole pill (and return the unused half pill to the bottle).
I've developed the following method of getting the pills from the pill bottle:
- Take one item, that is, one pill or half pill, from the bottle at random.
- Repeat just until I have enough pills (or perhaps just
more than enough) to take my $2.5$ pills worth of medication. In
particular, repeat until I have one of the following:
- $5$ half pills
- $4$ half pills and $1$ whole pill
- $3$ half pills and $1$ whole pill
- $2$ half pills and $2$ whole pills
- $1$ half pill and $2$ whole pills
- $0$ half pills and $3$ whole pills
- In any of the first five cases above, take exactly $2.5$ pills worth of medication, replacing any extra half pill in the bottle. In the last case ($3$ whole pills) split one of the pills, take the $2.5$ pills, and replace the extra half pill.
The question I have, based on my real-world observation of the pill bottle is:
How is the proportion of half pills in the bottle expected to behave over time? Does this change in general if I have $5n$ pills to consume over $2n$ days, as $n$ increases without bound?
Obviously near the beginning, there will be very few half pills. But as I tried to evaluate (for example) the probability that there would be three half pills after $6$ days, I just got very confused. And as the number of days approached $30$ the number of different possibilities grew.
A very similar problem ($1/2$ pill instead of $5/2$ pills) is discussed in A Drug-Induced Random Walk by Daniel J. Velleman.
I have the PDF but I am not sure how to insert it here (it is not a picture).