What's $\Pr(X=0|X=Y)$?

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Let $X$ and $Y$ be independent random variables that take values in $\{0,1\}$.

My question is: how to solve our $\Pr(X=0 | X=Y)$? We only know that $\Pr(Y=0) = \Pr(Y=1) = 0.5$.


My attempt:

$$\begin{split} \Pr(X=0|X=Y) &= \frac{ \Pr(X=0) }{ \begin{split} &\Pr(X=0,Y=0)\\ +&\Pr(X=1,Y=1) \end{split} }\\ &= \frac{ \Pr(X=0) }{ \begin{split} &\Pr(X=0)\Pr(Y=0)\\ +&\Pr(X=1)\Pr(Y=1) \end{split} }\\ &= \frac{ \Pr(X=0) }{ \begin{split} &\Pr(X=0)\Pr(Y=0)\\ +&(1-\Pr(X=0))(1-\Pr(Y=0)) \end{split} } \end{split}$$

Then, if I try $\Pr(Y=0)=.5$, I get:

$$\begin{split} \Pr(X=0|X=Y) &= \frac{ \Pr(X=0) }{\Pr(X=0)\times .5 + (1-\Pr(X=0)) \times .5}\\ &= \frac{ \Pr(X=0) }{\Pr(X=0)\times .5 + (1 \times .5-\Pr(X=0) \times .5)}\\ &= \frac{ \Pr(X=0) }{\Pr(X=0)\times .5 + .5-\Pr(X=0) \times .5}\\ &= \frac{ \Pr(X=0) }{.5}\\ &= 2\Pr(X=0)\\ \end{split}$$

Then, if $\Pr(X=0)=.6$, the answer is $2\times.6 = 1.2 > 1$. Madness!


My attempt (NEW):

$$\begin{split} \Pr(X=0|X=Y) &= \frac{\Pr(X=0,X=Y)}{\Pr(X=Y)} \\ &= \frac{\Pr(X=0)\Pr(X=Y|X=0)}{\Pr(X=Y)} \\ &= \frac{\Pr(X=0)\Pr(X=Y|X=0)}{\Pr(X=0)\Pr(Y=0)+\Pr(X=1)\Pr(Y=1)} \\ &= \frac{\Pr(X=0)\Pr(Y=0)}{\Pr(X=0)\Pr(Y=0)+\Pr(X=1)\Pr(Y=1)} \\ \end{split}$$

Plugging $\Pr(Y=0) = \Pr(Y=1) = .5$:

$$\begin{split} \Pr(X=0|X=Y) &= \frac{.5\Pr(X=0)}{.5\Pr(X=0)+.5\Pr(X=1)} \\ &= \frac{.5\Pr(X=0)}{.5(\Pr(X=0)+\Pr(X=1))} \\ &= \frac{.5\Pr(X=0)}{.5(1)} \\ &= \frac{.5\Pr(X=0)}{.5} \\ &= \Pr(X=0) \\ \end{split}$$

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Let $X$ and $Y$ be independent random variables that take values in $\{0,1\}.$

We know that $\Pr(Y=0) = \Pr(Y=1) = 0.5\tag2.$

What is $\Pr(X=0 | X=Y) \;?$

Your new attempt is all good.

Note that armed only with the information in the first line but without statement $(2),$ $X$ and $Y$ attaining the same value, i.e., $\{X=Y\},$ and $\{X=0\}$ are not necessarily independent events. (After all, the probability that $Y$ equals $x$ generally does depend on whether $x$ equals $0.)$ Verify this by setting $P(X=0)P(X=Y)=P(X=0=Y).$

These two events are independent precisely when $\{X=0\}$ is impossible or certain or $Y$ is uniformly distributed. Here, statement $(2)$ informs us of the latter.