I play Marvel Strike Force and was discussing the probabilities of having a duplicate result on an lootbox. However. I feel like maybe I'm doing something wrong.
You open the lootbox/orb and you get the following chances (it's detailed by the game devs):
- 10% 7 stars pull
- 90% 6 red stars pull
Consider this your bags/pools. In the 10% pool you have the following probabilities:
- 0,60% to get a 7 red star for one of 141 characters
- 3% to get a 7 red star for one of 5 characters
Now let's say you get pool for 7 red star for one of the 141 characters. I would presume the probability of having a duplicate would be:
- P(10% - getting in the 10% bag) x P(0,60% - getting one of the 141 characters) = 0,006% then
- P(getting a second pull with one of the 141 characters) => 0,006^2 = 0,000032% then
- P(pulling a duplicate 7 red star on the second pull) => 0,000032 x P(probability of having this specific 7RS on your rooster)
- P(probability of having this specific 7RS on your rooster) = 1/141 ??
Are my steps right or what am I doing wrong?
Thank you!
EDIT: Some clarifications as requested. You have multiple characters on your rooster that can evolve up to 7 Yellow stars. On top of those stars you have Red Stars that go on top of those Yellow. The way they do it is a bit complex. Imagine that red stars is something you equip in the character itself.
This question is regarding Red Stars only and a specific orb (out of the multiple orbs that give you red star rewards). The specific orb works like this (although you basically just click open button and all the calculations are done on their side):
- You click open and you get either a 6 Star or a 7 star. That's the base action->result. Example 7 Red Star result here.
- After that open action, internally, your pool/bag is selected (6 or 7 red stars pool) with RNG. The 6 vs 7 Star pool selection probability is in the first in my first list (90% vs 10%).
- Both pools/bags have Red Stars for 146 characters. 141 characters have a 0.60% chance and the other 5 characters have a 3% chance.
In short, let's say you open the orb, in its current state, you will probably have a 6 red star result (90%) for a character pulled.
So, my question is for the scenario where you open this specific orb/lootbox two times, what are the chances of having a duplicate for the 141 characters on the second opening given you have no character in your rooster with 7 red stars.
Also, keep in mind my percentages here are based on what the developers state in the orb/lootbox description.