Fix any $y$ on the sphere $S^{n-1}:=\{x\in\mathbb{R}^n : \|x\|_2=1\}$. Let $z$ be a random variable, uniformly distributed on $S^{n-1}$. Show that for any $\epsilon\in(0,1/\sqrt{2})$. $$ \mathbb{P}[|y^Tz|> \epsilon]\leq \left(1-\epsilon^2\right)^{n/2} $$ This is an exercise left to the reader in Martin Wainwright's High Dimensional Statistics, p. 69. The author statest that it is a "geometric calculation".
What I tried: The most promising approach I have is the observation that the term $\sqrt{1-\epsilon^2}$ is the length of the leg of a right-angled triangle with hypotenuse of length 1 and leg of length $\epsilon$. Such a triangle indeed readily appears when one draws a two-dimensional sphere, and the region $\{x\in\mathbb{R}^n : |y^Tx|>\epsilon\}$. But I don't understand how to connect this to the probability in question, and consequentially how to get the exponent $n$. Can anyone help?
I do not see what was the geometric method mentioned by Wainwright. The probability can be expressed as a one-dimensional integral as follows.
First, by invariance by rotations, one may choose $y$ equal to the first vector of the canonical basis. Moreover, the uniform distribution on $\mathbb{S}_{n-1}$ is the distribution of $U/(|U|)$, where $U=(U_1,\ldots,U_n)$ is a gaussian vector with distribution $\mathcal{N}(0,I_n)$, and $|U|$ its usual Euclidean norm.
Therefore the desired probability is $$\mathbb{P}[U_1^2 \ge \epsilon^2 |U|^2] = \mathbb{P}[(1-\epsilon^2)U_1^2 \ge \epsilon^2 (U_2^2+\cdots+U_n^2)].$$ The random variables $U_i^2$ are independent with distribution Gamma$(1/2,1/2)$, hence the distribution of $U_1^2/(U_2^2+\cdots+U_n^2)$ is Beta$(1/2,(n-1)/2)$. As a result, $$\mathbb{P}[U_1^2 \ge \epsilon^2 |U|^2] = \int_{\epsilon^2}^1\frac{\Gamma(n/2)}{\Gamma(1/2)\Gamma((n-1)/2)} x^{-1/2}(1-x)^{n-3/2}dx.$$ The change of variable $y=x-\epsilon^2$ yields $$\mathbb{P}[U_1^2 \ge \epsilon^2 |U|^2] = \int_0^{1-\epsilon^2}\frac{\Gamma(n/2)}{\Gamma(1/2)\Gamma((n-1)/2)} (\epsilon^2+y)^{-1/2}(1-\epsilon^2-y)^{n-3/2}dy.$$ I use the inequalities $\epsilon^2+y \ge y$ and $0 \le 1-\epsilon^2-y \le (1-\epsilon^2)(1-y)$ for $y \in [0,1-\epsilon^2]$. $$\mathbb{P}[U_1^2 \ge \epsilon^2 |U|^2] \le (1-\epsilon^2)^{n-3/2}\int_0^{1-\epsilon^2}\frac{\Gamma(n/2)}{\Gamma(1/2)\Gamma((n-1)/2)} y^{-1/2}(1-y)^{n-3/2}dy.$$ The last integral over $[0,1-\epsilon]$ is less that the same integral over $[0,1]$, so $$\mathbb{P}[U_1^2 \ge \epsilon^2 |U|^2] \le (1-\epsilon^2)^{n-3/2}.$$