""Roll a die, and you get paid what the dice shows. But if you want, you can request a second chance & roll the die again; get paid what the second roll shows instead of the first. What is the expected value""
This question has been asked many times. But my question is whats wrong with my reasoning.
So a normal approach goes like this: Expected value on the first dice roll is $3.5$. Now if you get $4,5,6>3.5$, don't re-roll. Else, re-roll.
So this gives, $Exp.=(\frac36)(5)+(\frac36)(3.5)=4.25$.
Now my reasoning is just a bit different. Let the expected value of the whole game be $x$. Now if I play the game infinite times, I would expect to win $x$ out of it. So if on the first roll, I don't get at least $x$, then I would re-roll. (This was the difference).
Using this logic gives the equation (assuming $x$ to be a real number not an integer but a fraction): $$x=\frac{\lfloor x\rfloor}{6}(3.5)+\frac{6-\lfloor x\rfloor}{6}(\frac{\lfloor x \rfloor+1+6}{2})$$
This equation holds true for $x=\frac{25}{6}\approx4.1667$.
So what is wrong with my approach?
Edit:
Looking back at the problem it seems that the question is missing one piece of information, and that is when does the player decide to re-roll. So assuming that threshold to be $k$, the expected value becomes:
$$\frac{\lfloor k\rfloor}{6}(3.5)+\frac{6-\lfloor k\rfloor}{6}(\frac{\lfloor k \rfloor+1+6}{2})$$
which attains maximum at $\lfloor k\rfloor=3$. So this means that the question basically assumes that the player would take a step which basically maximises the total expected value.
2026-04-04 00:32:12.1775262732
Expected value in a dice roll game
482 Views Asked by Bumbble Comm https://math.techqa.club/user/bumbble-comm/detail AtRelated Questions in PROBABILITY
- How to prove $\lim_{n \rightarrow\infty} e^{-n}\sum_{k=0}^{n}\frac{n^k}{k!} = \frac{1}{2}$?
- Is this a commonly known paradox?
- What's $P(A_1\cap A_2\cap A_3\cap A_4) $?
- Prove or disprove the following inequality
- Another application of the Central Limit Theorem
- Given is $2$ dimensional random variable $(X,Y)$ with table. Determine the correlation between $X$ and $Y$
- A random point $(a,b)$ is uniformly distributed in a unit square $K=[(u,v):0<u<1,0<v<1]$
- proving Kochen-Stone lemma...
- Solution Check. (Probability)
- Interpreting stationary distribution $P_{\infty}(X,V)$ of a random process
Related Questions in EXPECTED-VALUE
- Show that $\operatorname{Cov}(X,X^2)=0$ if X is a continuous random variable with symmetric distribution around the origin
- prove that $E(Y) = 0$ if $X$ is a random variable and $Y = x- E(x)$
- Limit of the expectation in Galton-Watson-process using a Martingale
- Determine if an Estimator is Biased (Unusual Expectation Expression)
- Why are negative constants removed from variance?
- How to find $\mathbb{E}(X\mid\mathbf{1}_{X<Y})$ where $X,Y$ are i.i.d exponential variables?
- $X_1,X_2,X_3 \sim^{\text{i.i.d}} R(0,1)$. Find $E(\frac{X_1+X_2}{X_1+X_2+X_3})$
- How to calculate the conditional mean of $E(X\mid X<Y)$?
- Let X be a geometric random variable, show that $E[X(X-1)...(X-r+1)] = \frac{r!(1-p)^r}{p^r}$
- Taylor expansion of expectation in financial modelling problem
Related Questions in GAME-THEORY
- Maximum number of guaranteed coins to get in a "30 coins in 3 boxes" puzzle
- Interesting number theoretical game
- Perfect Information Game and Chance node
- Valid operations to the value of a matrix game
- Rook Game Problem Solving
- Proof of Axiom of Transparency in Aumman's model of knowledge
- Sion's MinMax theorem over matrices
- Can Zermelo's theorem be extended to a game which always has a winner?
- a risk lover agent behave as if risk natural.
- How to prove that a strategy profile is a Proper Equilibrium?
Related Questions in PUZZLE
- Maximum number of guaranteed coins to get in a "30 coins in 3 boxes" puzzle
- Interesting number theoretical game
- Number of divisors 888,888.
- Who has built the house of Mason?
- Is there any tri-angle ?
- In what position , the dogs will reside?
- Number of ways to go from A to I
- Who is the truth teller (logic puzzle)
- How many solutions are there if you draw 14 Crosses in a 6x6 Grid?
- Symmetric latin square diagonal elements
Related Questions in DICE
- Charting the probability of die values equal to or greater than a variable with N dice
- Probability of a dice board game
- Probability of rolling at least one snake eyes (pair of two ones) with four dice, rolled 3 times
- Probability of rolling x dice
- Is this a fair game (three players throw dice)?
- Probability of rolling ≥ $x$ with $k$ out of $m$ $n$-sided dice
- Puzzling Dice Roll Probability Problem
- Probability: In n rolls of a fair die
- Probability of rolling a $6$ with $2$ dice (that both have a second $6$)
- Random number of dice with random number of faces-Probability of getting a max number provided
Trending Questions
- Induction on the number of equations
- How to convince a math teacher of this simple and obvious fact?
- Find $E[XY|Y+Z=1 ]$
- Refuting the Anti-Cantor Cranks
- What are imaginary numbers?
- Determine the adjoint of $\tilde Q(x)$ for $\tilde Q(x)u:=(Qu)(x)$ where $Q:U→L^2(Ω,ℝ^d$ is a Hilbert-Schmidt operator and $U$ is a Hilbert space
- Why does this innovative method of subtraction from a third grader always work?
- How do we know that the number $1$ is not equal to the number $-1$?
- What are the Implications of having VΩ as a model for a theory?
- Defining a Galois Field based on primitive element versus polynomial?
- Can't find the relationship between two columns of numbers. Please Help
- Is computer science a branch of mathematics?
- Is there a bijection of $\mathbb{R}^n$ with itself such that the forward map is connected but the inverse is not?
- Identification of a quadrilateral as a trapezoid, rectangle, or square
- Generator of inertia group in function field extension
Popular # Hahtags
second-order-logic
numerical-methods
puzzle
logic
probability
number-theory
winding-number
real-analysis
integration
calculus
complex-analysis
sequences-and-series
proof-writing
set-theory
functions
homotopy-theory
elementary-number-theory
ordinary-differential-equations
circles
derivatives
game-theory
definite-integrals
elementary-set-theory
limits
multivariable-calculus
geometry
algebraic-number-theory
proof-verification
partial-derivative
algebra-precalculus
Popular Questions
- What is the integral of 1/x?
- How many squares actually ARE in this picture? Is this a trick question with no right answer?
- Is a matrix multiplied with its transpose something special?
- What is the difference between independent and mutually exclusive events?
- Visually stunning math concepts which are easy to explain
- taylor series of $\ln(1+x)$?
- How to tell if a set of vectors spans a space?
- Calculus question taking derivative to find horizontal tangent line
- How to determine if a function is one-to-one?
- Determine if vectors are linearly independent
- What does it mean to have a determinant equal to zero?
- Is this Batman equation for real?
- How to find perpendicular vector to another vector?
- How to find mean and median from histogram
- How many sides does a circle have?