I've been getting stumped by what seems to be a super simple conditional probability question...
3 people run a race: A, B, and C. Based on what we know about about their past races, we estimate the probability of each person coming in $1^{st}$, $2^{nd}$, and $3^{rd}$ are...
| | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|-------|-------|-------|
| A | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| B | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| C | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
- How likely is it that A runs $1^{st}$ and B runs $2^{nd}$
- Given that Person A wins the race, what is the probability that person B comes in second?
Here's the main part that's confusing me...
Shouldn't $P(B=2|A=1) = P(C=3|A=1)$ since the race will be deterministic as soon as we know 2 of the 3 finishers? I just can't seem to find a way to calculate these probabilities that satisfies that criterium.
(Note: It's also possible that this is a trick question with impossible probabilities, in which case I'd really appreciate a derivation that can support this.)
There is more than one possible solution. Here are two different scenarios, and any weighted combination of them works too
The answer to (1) is the probability $\mathbb P(ABC)$, so between $0$ and $0.2$
The answer to (2) is the conditional probability $\frac{\mathbb P(ABC)}{\mathbb P(ABC)+\mathbb P(ACB)}$, i.e. the answer to (1) divided by the probability $A$ wins $(0.5)$, so between $0$ and $0.4$