I'm hoping that someone may be able to help me. I'm beginning a project in which requires asking "what would have happened if X didn't happen", specifically whilst using Bayesian analysis and methods. I'm wondering if anyone knows any good literature on counterfactual modelling/estimation etc
I'm more than happy to sieve through papers, textbooks etc so please feel free to throw it all at me.
Thanks again
You might want to take a look at Judea Pearl's book Causality. Models, reasoning, and inference, in particular chapters 7 and 8. Be aware that Pearl's framework is only one of several competing approaches and is seen as controversial by some. The answers and comments to the question, Criticism of Pearl's theory of causality, from stats.stackexchange.com contain and link to a lot of information that may also be useful to you.
Pearl, Judea, Causality. Models, reasoning, and inference, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (ISBN 978-0-521-89560-6/hbk). xviii, 464 p. (2009). ZBL1188.68291.,