Site-specific intensity of an impending earthquake at the location is strong (S), moderate (M),or weak (W). Moderate ground shaking is three times more likely than strong shaking; weak shaking is 3 times more likely than moderate shaking. The probability that the facility will fail depends on the intensity of the ground shaking. The failure probability is $0.3$, $0.05$ and $0.001$ for strong, moderate, and weak shaking, respectively.
- What is the probability of failure of the facility during the impending earthquake?
- If the facility fails, what is the probability that the ground shaking was strong?
Greetings to the Forum People. I am new to Probabilistic concepts and I am stuck with this question; it would be great help if one could answer these question or provide an idea of how to move forward.